Environment & Climate

IMD Predicts Below-Normal September Rainfall After 16% Deficit in August

01 September 2026UPSCSSC

In Brief

Forecasts continued rainfall shortfall affecting 42 percent of monitored districts across India.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on September 1, 2026, that precipitation in September is expected to remain below normal. This follows a nationwide monsoon rainfall deficit of 16 percent recorded during August, raising concerns for late-kharif agricultural yields and reservoir storage levels.

The IMD defines 'normal' rainfall based on Long Period Average (LPA) calculated over a 50-year period (1971-2020), which stands at 88 cm for the full southwest monsoon season (June to September). Sub-normal rainfall is frequently driven by atmospheric-oceanic phenomena such as El Niño conditions in the Equatorial Pacific or unfavorable Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases.

IMD monitoring data reveals that out of 741 districts tracked nationwide, 312 districts (approximately 42 percent) registered deficient rainfall through August. Major agricultural belts in Central and Western India experienced dry spells during critical crop maturation stages, impacting crops like pulses, oilseeds, and coarse cereals.

A dry September could impair soil moisture for upcoming Rabi sowing and strain rural liquidity. For competitive exams, this provides key facts for Prelims questions on IMD forecasting criteria, LPA metrics, and El Niño/IOD mechanisms, while serving Mains GS-1/GS-3 topics on Indian monsoon dynamics, climate change adaptation, and food security.

UPSC Study NotesHIGHGS3 — Agriculture, Climate & Disaster Management; Prelims

GS3 — Agriculture, Climate & Disaster Management; Prelims

📌 Exam Angle

UPSC frequently tests IMD's rainfall classification system and atmospheric phenomena affecting monsoons. Expect Prelims MCQs on LPA definition, El Niño/IOD mechanisms, or district-level deficit calculations. Mains may ask: "Analyze the impact of sub-normal monsoon rainfall on India's food security and suggest mitigation strategies" (GS3) or link rainfall patterns to climate change adaptation (GS1).

⚠️ Key Concerns

Rainfall deficits during critical crop maturation stages directly threaten kharif yields for pulses, oilseeds, and cereals—commodities with direct inflation impact. The 42% district coverage signals widespread agricultural distress, risking rural debt cycles and migration. Consecutive dry months eroding soil moisture compounds rabi sowing challenges, creating cascading food security risks.

💡 Why It Matters

Monsoon variability directly influences India's agricultural output, rural income, and inflation trajectory—core governance concerns. Early rainfall forecasting enables policy interventions (irrigation management, crop insurance, MSP adjustments), making meteorological accuracy critical for economic stability.

🔑 Must Remember

• LPA (Long Period Average) calculated over 50-year baseline (1971-2020) = 88 cm for full SW monsoon • El Niño and unfavorable IOD phases are primary drivers of sub-normal rainfall patterns • 312 of 741 districts (42%) experiencing deficient rainfall threatens late-kharif and upcoming rabi crops

📝 Key Terms

IMDLong Period AverageSouthwest MonsoonEl NiñoIndian Ocean Dipolekharif cropsrainfall deficitsoil moistureagricultural yieldrabi sowing

IMD Predicts Below-Normal September Rainfall After 16% Deficit in August

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