IMD Predicts Below-Normal September Rainfall After 16% Deficit in August

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on September 1, 2026, that precipitation in September is expected to remain below normal. This follows a nationwide monsoon rainfall deficit of 16 percent recorded during August, raising concerns for late-kharif agricultural yields and reservoir storage levels.

The IMD defines 'normal' rainfall based on Long Period Average (LPA) calculated over a 50-year period (1971-2020), which stands at 88 cm for the full southwest monsoon season (June to September). Sub-normal rainfall is frequently driven by atmospheric-oceanic phenomena such as El Niño conditions in the Equatorial Pacific or unfavorable Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases.

IMD monitoring data reveals that out of 741 districts tracked nationwide, 312 districts (approximately 42 percent) registered deficient rainfall through August. Major agricultural belts in Central and Western India experienced dry spells during critical crop maturation stages, impacting crops like pulses, oilseeds, and coarse cereals.

A dry September could impair soil moisture for upcoming Rabi sowing and strain rural liquidity. For competitive exams, this provides key facts for Prelims questions on IMD forecasting criteria, LPA metrics, and El Niño/IOD mechanisms, while serving Mains GS-1/GS-3 topics on Indian monsoon dynamics, climate change adaptation, and food security.