Environment & Climate

IMD Announces Southwest Monsoon Withdrawal Timeline Starting September 19

15 September 2026UPSCSSCBank

In Brief

Forecasts commencement of Southwest Monsoon withdrawal from Sept 19 with cumulative rain deficit at 15%.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that the withdrawal sequence of the Southwest Monsoon (June to September) is expected to commence from North-West India around September 19, 2026. Official data released by the weather agency indicates that despite isolated heavy precipitation events, the cumulative national monsoon rainfall deficit stands at approximately 15 percent compared to Long Period Average (LPA) benchmarks.

The withdrawal of the monsoon is declared when specific atmospheric criteria established by the IMD are satisfied: cessation of rainfall activity over West Rajasthan for five consecutive days, establishment of an anticyclonic circulation at 850 hPa level, and a substantial reduction in moisture content. The Southwest Monsoon provides nearly 75 percent of India's total annual rainfall, acting as the primary driver of kharif agricultural output and reservoir replenishment.

Monsoon patterns are heavily influenced by global macro-climate phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IMD classifies seasonal rainfall based on LPA departures: normal (96-104%), below normal (90-95%), and deficient (below 90%). A 15 percent deficit raises localized concerns for post-monsoon soil moisture retention and winter rabi crop sowing preparation.

Understanding monsoon dynamics is vital for assessing agricultural yields, rural demand, and food inflation metrics. For civil service exams, this topic frequently yields Prelims questions on IMD withdrawal criteria, El Niño/IOD mechanisms, and LPA definitions, as well as Mains GS Paper-1 Geography questions.

UPSC Study NotesHIGHGS1 — Geography & Climate; Prelims & Mains

GS1 — Geography & Climate; Prelims & Mains

📌 Exam Angle

UPSC commonly asks Prelims MCQs on monsoon withdrawal criteria (West Rajasthan rainfall cessation, anticyclonic circulation at 850 hPa, moisture reduction). Mains GS1 essays frequently demand analysis of monsoon deficits' impact on agriculture, water security, and food inflation — expect questions like "How do global climate phenomena influence India's monsoon pattern and agricultural output?"

⚠️ Key Concerns

A 15% rainfall deficit threatens kharif productivity and reservoir replenishment despite normal classification. UPSC probes the gap between IMD's "normal" classification (96-104% LPA) and ground-level agricultural stress — testing whether aspirants understand deficits matter for soil moisture and rabi crop preparation. El Niño/IOD mechanisms are frequently tested as root causes of monsoon variability.

💡 Why It Matters

Monsoons drive 75% of India's annual rainfall and directly determine food security, rural incomes, and inflation metrics. Accurate withdrawal forecasting enables government policy intervention for irrigation, crop insurance, and fiscal planning — critical for sustainable agricultural GDP growth.

🔑 Must Remember

• Southwest Monsoon withdrawal declared when West Rajasthan records 5 consecutive dry days + anticyclonic circulation at 850 hPa + moisture reduction • 15% deficit qualifies as "below normal" rainfall; impacts rabi sowing and food inflation • El Niño/IOD are primary global drivers of monsoon strength variability

📝 Key Terms

Southwest Monsoon withdrawalLPA (Long Period Average)ENSOIndian Ocean Dipole (IOD)anticyclonic circulationkharif agriculturerainfall deficitsoil moisture retention

IMD Announces Southwest Monsoon Withdrawal Timeline Starting September 19

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