Skymet Cuts India Monsoon Forecast to 85% of LPA, Cites High Drought Risk

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet updated its seasonal rainfall prediction for India, slashing the expected quantitative rainfall to 85 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). Skymet warned of a critical 70 percent probability of drought across major agricultural belts, attributing this dramatic reduction in rainfall to the intensified development of a strong El Niño weather phenomenon over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The Long Period Average represents the average rainfall received over a specified region over a 50-year period, which currently stands at 868.6 mm for the southwest monsoon season running from June to September. Rainfall below 90 percent of the LPA is classified by the India Meteorological Department as a deficient or drought year. El Niño involves abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which disrupts the Walker Circulation and weakens monsoon winds over South Asia.

The forecast indicates severe moisture stress for Kharif crops such as rice, pulses, soybean, and cotton across rainfed regions in Central, Western, and Southern India. Skymet noted that early monsoon months suffered deficit precipitation, while Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions failed to offer sufficient positive offset against the Pacific warming trend. India relies on the southwest monsoon for nearly 70 percent of its annual precipitation.

Deficient monsoons directly threaten agricultural output, rural demand, and food inflation management for the Reserve Bank of India. In UPSC and SSC exams, this topic frequently generates questions on physical geography, monsoon dynamics, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), LPA definitions, and Indian agricultural vulnerability in GS Paper I and III.